By Samuel Mungadze

Johannesburg , January   10,   2006 (AND) – The Horn of Africa remains a hot spot in Africa. According to Dr Martin Rupiya of the Institute of Security Studies, the region remains potentially volatile and the possibility of prolonged conflict is high. Dr Rupiya’s sentiments come as Ethiopia and Eritrea continue to amass troops at each others' borders in preparation for a possible war over a demarcation ruling. The International Court of Justice ruling awards some Ethiopian towns to Eritrea.

The Senior Researcher with the Institute said, “We have serious problems in the Horn of Africa, the arbitration demarcated the border differently and one town, Badme was allocated to Eritrea , 65% are Ethiopian. Their own people ( Ethiopia ) will revolt if they agree anything with the Eritrea .”

In December 2000, the arbitration commission sat to rule on the position of the disputed 1,000-kilometer boundary, while U.N. troops patrolled a 24-kilometer buffer zone between the two countries.

But Ethiopia has refused to implement the international boundary commission's April 2002 ruling, which awarded the key town of Badme to Eritrea .

Dr Rupiya noted that if the Ethiopia government were to agree it will face serious revolt from its own people because most of the people in the city of Bidme are Ethiopian and would not want to be Eritrean

Yesterday the US government announced that it will be sending a high level team into the region to try and help find an amicable solution to the dispute.

According to media reports from New York , U.S. Ambassador John Bolton told the U.N. Security Council that Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer and retired Marine Gen. Carlton Fulford, who directs the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, would be traveling to the region "to discuss how to begin implementation of the demarcation process."

The Horn of Africa is yet another test case of the African Union which many view as toothless. The AU has been accused of failing to deal with wayward African leaders who fail to honour international agreement including those of the organisation itself.

Since its inception in 2004, the African Union's mission has also failed in Darfur which has been a major test of Africa 's collective ability to defuse its own conflicts and protect its civilians

On the effectiveness of the AU Dr. Rupiya said it must look into its capacity to deal with conflicts across the continent.