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The Looming Show Down Between Somaliland And Somalia
Again the face of Somalia's long suffering took another sharp turn to the worst, bordering on the unpredictable and the unknown. This unexpected development, the total defeat of the warlords have shaken the powerless TFG now holed up in Baidoa. The sudden exit of the hated warlords, who were also an integral part of Abdillahi Embagathi project was unprecedented. Though most of the leading movers and shakers of that fake entity were warlords in general, they have been deeply divided by clan affiliation and other differences. Though Abdillahi Yusuf who himself is a veteran warlord, have sharp differences with the Mogadishu warlords, but all of them one thing in common, they hate the Mogadishu's Islamic courts.
The Islamists who have so far shown poor leadership, organization and management are enjoying a false supremacy and invincibility. Instead of consolidating the peace, stability and the rule of law in the areas they now control, they set off an all out propaganda campaign against Somaliland, the powerless TFG, Ethiopia and others. They already overstretched themselves by capturing other areas outside Mogadishu. They also failed so far to shake up the terrorist label attached around the neck of some of their leaders.
Their sometimes bellicose rhetoric, and amateurish actions have exposed their political immaturity. These political novices have unleashed a dark cloud of uncertainty and unpredictability around the whole area. There sudden emergency into the limelight was also very bad news for Abdillahi Yusuf and his foreign made outfit. They have also alarmed Ethiopia and the United States regarding the alleged link of some of their members to international terrorism. This news was also particularly very chocking to the inept IGAD countries-the architects of the virtual Embagathi entity. IGAD's poor skills on nation building, poor management and leadership skills are written all over the TFG, which fits the saying which goes, what you have is what you got. This could be further simplified, into the fact that IGAD states who are mostly failing states could have not come up with something better than Embagathi and Abdillahi Yusuf.
IGAD states-the merchants of dysfunction are mostly charlatans who feast on Somalia's (Southern Somalia) misery suffered two devastating blows:
1. The Islamist eruption in Mogadishu have taken their troubled baby-Abdillahi Yusuf's TFG out of the headlines. In other wards the new version of warlords disguising under beards and flowing robes have graped all the international headlines and they love it.
2. IGAD, the Arab League led by Egypt were completely excluded from the United States contact group. This group will conduct its second meeting in mid July in Europe. The Somaliland government and the Somaliland Diaspora must demand to participate in that meeting in some capacity.
We commend the United States government for excluding the inept IGAD states, and the Arab League. It is about time to remove these do not countries out of the Somali affairs.
This shocking news has hit the noisy clan-supremacist groups like a missile. They were shell shocked and for sometime, their baseless propaganda and blazing guns have suddenly came to a screeching halt. After being absent from the scene and silent for about a week, understandably figuring out where they can fit in with respect to this development, they came up with waning, defensive and panicky rhetoric, disparaging the Islamists and for good reason. I can't blame them, because all of a sudden nobody is talking about their cognitively impaired outfit, Abdillahi Yususf's Embagatti project. All the media starts talking about the Mogadishu Islamists. They appeared in every radio station, website and TV. Even the Fadhi-Kudirir informal forums were buzzing with Mogadishu news. Putting the hidden agendas of the so-called unionists/Siyadists/clan supremacists is not that hidden at all, they were hopefully using the defective TFG, as a stepping stone that may eventually put them at the top of what is left of Somalia first, and according to their logic, may eventually lead them to take over Somaliland. Though a very tall order. You remember the selection of Abdillahi Yussuf has pumped some life into a group-unionist/Sadists. No wonder that, they are so obsessed with a lost cause-the so-called union because, that was the last time their clan has hegemony over the whole country, what was formerly called Somalia.
It seems they are quite oblivious to their aggressive rhetoric and actions towards the people of Somaliland, who have suffered under those clan supremacists disguising as unionists. The way they are talking is dictatorial, intransigent and patronizing which may lead into hightened tension and eventually war. In a net shell, the addition of the Mogadishu Islamists to the political fray, was a net loss to Abdillahi Yusuf and his cohorts. If you want to have a feel of the tone of the unionist/clanist talking points, read the last posting of the cyber clan supremacist warrior a man called Abdalla Hirad.
Both of the above-mentioned groups vehemently believe on a military solution of Somalia's problems. They are not paying attention to what they have learned from 16 years of endless wars, chaos, death and destruction. The victor of the potential war between the two above-named groups, would unequivocally acquire the momentum and wherewithal to plan attacking Somaliland under the guise of preserving Somali unity. that is when the warnings of the ICG (International Crisis Groups) and others may materialize and if it happens, that will surely degenerate into a devastating war of attrition.
Two state solution format of Somaliland and Somalia is the only way to avert a devastating showdown between Somaliland, and what is left of Somalia. No matter what anybody says and does won't matter. Whether recognition happens or not doesn't matter. Whether Egypt, the Arab league and others won't accept Somaliland doesn't matter. What matters at the end of the day, is what the people of Somaliland want, which is total independence and sovereignty. Somaliland's independence and liberty is a birth right and the people of this great land are entitled to it. Whether the inept 20th century institutions and some third world countries of the old school accept it or not, Somaliland's sovereignty and independence is permanent, sacrosanct and irreversible.