Gemeda Humnasa

January 5, 2007

Since European colonizers recklessly enforced national boundaries in the horn of Africa, Ethiopia and Somalia have been fighting, particularly about the ownership of the Ogaden land. Because of these colonizers and with the two east African nations being hi-jacked by radical nationalist governments for decades, what succeeded since have been oppression, dictatorship, extreme patriotism, poverty and anarchy; while economic development held a backseat. But, depending on what happens in Mogadishu the next few months, things might improve for these two nations.

Just this week, the radical Islamic Courts Union (ICU) abandoned the Somalia capital after losing various battles in central Somalia. It is reported that hundreds of ICU fighters were killed by the Ethiopian and Somalia government troops. According to analysts and several journalists, the main reasons why the ICU is losing fast is because the will of its fighters were broken by Ethiopian air & land forces and ICU’s Somali rebel allies betrayed the ICU to support the Somalia government.

Despite the success of the Somali government, Mohammed Adday reported to CNN that the ICU is moving to Kismayo city and they are changing tactics to a guerrilla type resistance. Stating that some Somali citizens in Mogadishu cheered the take over by the Somali government, Mr.Mohammed also restated that the ICU set up “harsh and extreme rules” but “no one expected the ICU to lose support and give up the capital this easily after waging holy war & pledging to fight in Mogadishu. Now that the Somali government is in control, mere promises to the Somali people will not work this time. The Ali Mohamad Gedi-led government must practice what it preaches and promises. Clearly, a Somalia under the control of the extremist ICU and the anti-Ethiopian Eritrean government would have been disastrous for east Africa. Even the United Nations wanted to ban foreign involvement in Somalia first, but once it realized that ICU has already brought in various groups and Asmara, UN knew that the main danger would have occurred only if the ICU and its allies took over the whole of Somalia. But now, a lawless Mogadishu and Somalia is equally as bad. So this is vital time and probably the last chance for the Somali transitional interim government (TFG) to prove itself. It is also a big chance for an Ethiopian government to contribute to the well-being of Somalis.

History shows that both Somalia governments and Ethiopian governments try to destabilize each other. But since the mid 1990s the current Ethiopian government has placed economic development & co-existence at the forefront of its policies and if it has really learned a lesion, the Ethiopian government should work hard to promote peace, democracy and prosperity in Somalia. It might be able to bring stability, religious freedom and some degree of democracy, but the current Ethiopian government that barely practices democracy in its own country appears hardly able to teach unlimited democracy to other countries. So this is actually one of those “it’s better than nothing” cases because east Africa doesn’t have other options. All other nations in the region are working day and night to destabilize each other and promote anti-Western policies. The Eritrean government has already provoked two wars in its less than two decades of existence; the first one by bombing a school full of children in Ethiopia and now by arming jihadists in Somalia. So with Ethiopian government’s secular ideology, Ethiopia's huge population and military power to endure bombardment, it can play a positive role is teaching tolerance and showing that east African nations need each other to get out of poverty.

A victory for Ethiopia would translate to a friendly Somali government that would respect international boundaries and focus on development. This victory can also block the movement of jihadist groups & armed organizations like ONLF and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF.) The ONLF has been assassinating Somali-Ethiopian leaders for many years and because of the progress made in the Oromia state of Ethiopia, OLF has been attacking progressive Oromos and it currently appears more like a violent Oromo supremacy front rather than a liberation front. So blocking the bases of backward, narrow and violent armed groups can bring peace in East Africa, particularly Ethiopia. But most of all the Somali government must bring peace in Somalia and remove politicized Islam out of this moderate nation.

As soon as the Islamic Courts left Mogadishu, looting and criminal activities rose to a high level. Even though things will improve to a small degree, clearly the Sharia law enforced by the sword was able to keep Mogadishu “in peace with fear.” So to a region used to lawlessness, the Somalia government would need to be smart and work hard to bring peace & security as well as freedom. There was a lot of propaganda against the Somali government. The ICU & jihadist imports used Islam to create support but they also used nationalism rhetoric to somehow discredit the transitional government. The other propaganda came from Asmara & armed Ethiopian opposition parties. Most of them said Ethiopia is “invading” Somalia. But when the TFG accused Asmara of arming the ICU & after the TFG restated its invitation for Ethiopian troops, the propaganda faded. In fact, alliance of Ethiopia with Somalis of Baidoa, Puntland, Somaliland and other regions made the Asmara propaganda appear like desperation propaganda. Then more propaganda came from Asmara claiming ICU is too powerful but this claim also faded. Additional propaganda came from the ICU, Asmara, armed Ethiopian rebels and major news sources controlled by anti-Ethiopian government reporters, like Deutsche Welle radio, saying the EPRDF-led Ethiopian government is using this disaster as a ploy to cover its internal problems and also saying that the TFG doesn’t represent the Somali people. However most minds already knew about the growing danger from ICU and careful analysis shows that the TFG is diversely represented by all Somalis clans. The only things against the TFG were ICU, the UN arms embargo and thus the lack of security forces. But now the TFG must also fight the propaganda it faced, create trust and focus on bringing security to southern Somalia.

Many questions need to be answered. Has the current Ethiopian government learned a lesson from the mistakes of previous governments? Will the Somali government remove the four known anti-Ethiopian armed groups financed by the Libyan and Eritrean government? Can the TFG stabilize Somalia without Ethiopian troops having to stay too long? Can the TFG control the Habr-Gedir sub-clan? Most of all, will the Somali people see a pro-Ethiopia Somalia government as an "Ethiopian puppet?" Or will they ignore ICU’s propaganda and understand that a pro-Ethiopia Somali government means peace & co-existence needed for economic & political development of the horn of Africa? There are many big challenges both for the Somalia transitional government and the Meles-led Ethiopian government. Within the next five years, two of the most important ways to judge the growth of the EPRDF-led Ethiopian government could be its assessment on forming a national unity government and its policies on Somalia.

Gemeda Humnasa

EXPERIENCE & BIO -lived in various Ethiopian regions, including Wolega,Harar and Addis Ababa(kirkos area) -Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia -writer and journalist in south and central Ethiopia (1987-1989) -Left Ethiopia as refugee after persecution and crack down during Derg gov. -Moved to U.S. -took courses in America -Currently works in America and visits Ethiopia frequently -Occasionally reports from Ethiopia.

Source: American Chronicle