Somalia: an opening towards the end of the impasse

The situation in Somalia, after a short period of calm imposed to a high cost by the domination of the Islamic Courts, once again finds itself at the mercy of guerrillas. The population is tired and tried and the increasing number of protagonists on the scene renders the situation even more chaotic. Nevertheless the situation is evolving, but peace still seems to be a distant prospect.

Anita Boselli

Equilibri.net (16 November 2007)

The Somali forces in play

Somalia has been, for more than 15 years, a fragmented country, torn by war and a fertile land for violence, due to the incapability of major politicians to make any real change. A recent change had led to hopes over the beginning of a new path. The strong organization in clans which constitutes the basis of the Somali society was thought of as the main obstacle to the stability of the African country. This has been officially denied with the failure of the National Reconciliation Conference (NRC), which started in July and ended in September. This was organized by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), the Somalian government which, even if not effective, is politically and militarily supported by the international community, particularly by Ethiopia, the EU and UN. Abdullah Yusuf, president of TFG, pushed towards the organization of the conference with participants from the clans and not politicians, a condition which was eventually accepted, even if quite coldly, by the international community. He also obtained the approval of members of Parliament last week, an amendment allowing candidates, who are not Parliamentarians, to take the same responsibility as members of the government or the Prime Minister. This principle had already been discussed in the NRC paper in August and others will be considered in a few days. The decision comes a week after the dismissal of previous Prime Minister Mohamed Gedi, replaced ad interim by Salim Alivow Ibirow and from a technical perspective, opens the door to the opposition. This is contrary to the tribal character of NRC, meaning that it is now considered inadequate to represent the country. Therefore, during a meeting held in September in Asmara, Eritrea, the opposition (made up by the summits of Islamic Courts, representatives of the transitional government and members of civil society) met in order to create the movement Alliance for the liberation of Somalia (ALS), aiming to replace TGF by means of negotiations or by force. The recently passed amendment would theoretically allow the participation of members of the opposition in a new government, at least on a personal basis.

The strong influence of foreign players

Up until now opposition has been met with in the political sector. Somalia has never been at rest, starting with Siyad Barres's dismissal, due to the armed guerrilla warfare between the different factions. Recent, the only period of relative stability was when the Islamic Courts Council (ICC) took control over Mogadishu and the Southern part of the country, which began with the expulsion of the war lords from the Somali capital during summer 2006 and ended with the intervention of the Ethiopian Army last January. The presence of foreign troops on Somali territory was a factor which contributed to the increase of guerrilla episodes in the last months. At the moment in Somalia there are foreign troops coming from three different countries: United States, Ethiopia and Uganda. The former intervened directly in the conflict in January and, together with Ethiopia, supported TFG in the fight against the Islamic Courts, which ended with their expulsion from Mogadishu. The intervention was harshly criticized by the EU and UN. The Ugandan soldiers are instead part of the troops disposed for the peace mission of the African Union (Amisom, African Mission to Somalia), which began last March. The mission of the so called 'green helmets' was supposed to include details of other African countries as well (Nigeria, Ghana, Mali and Burundi, which for the moment have not sent any troops), appointed to put the capital under control, oppose the return of Islamic militia and promote order and peace. But since the arrival of these elements, the clashes have increased instead of decreasing. The reason is that any foreign presence is thought of as an occupation, whatever its intentions. Ethiopian soldiers, who invaded the Somali territory declaring that occupation would last only two weeks, the time necessary to set Mogadishu free, are now in the worst position. Some have compared Addis Ababa’s situation to the events happening in Iraq: it was not easy to win over the ICU militia and gain the city back, but now the militia has been re-organized. This makes the circumstances very changeable, with a series of clashes and episodes of urban guerrilla warfare which involve Ethiopian soldiers and civilians as well. The last event happened a few years ago: the body of an Ethiopian soldier, killed in the clash following the capture operations carried out by Ethiopian soldiers, was dragged in the streets of Mogadishu and hit with stones by the crowd. Also lots of civilians get involved in the clashes between the Ethiopian troops and the rebels of the Islamic Courts; the fear has pushed thousands of people living in Mogadishu to leave the city. Also Eritrea's position should be considered: it offers support and refuge to groups of rebels and it was the seat of the meeting in which ALS (Movement of opposition to the transitional government) was created, supported by Ethiopia, over which some unresolved territorial questions and diplomatic tensions still remain. The problems concerning the three territories of Somalia, which declared themselves autonomous during these years of lack of real power, should not be forgotten. These states, even if not declared officially independent, are:

Somaliland , even if not recognized as independent, has a de facto autonomy which is respected due to its stability: this part of the country has remained detached from the clashes thanks to its geographic position. What differentiates Somaliland, Puntland and Galmudug is the aim of their declaration of autonomy. While Somaliland claims its independence (lost in 1960 with the creation of Somalia), Puntland and Galmudug are aiming at reaching the status of Federal divisions of a united Somalia. Moreover, even if these two territories have declared their autonomy, they are actually cooperating with one another and with the central government as well. The probable reason which pushes them towards cooperation and away from hostility with the transitional government is to be found in their hopes of maintaining autonomy and realizing their federal ambitions, once the order is restored within the country. This 'collaborationism' has further worsened the relations with Somaliland, which has been leading clashes and incursions with the near Puntland for years, a region which gave birth to President Yusuf. Puntland's position has been weakened in past months, exposing him to the attacks of his hostile neighbor.

Possible changes in the short term

Given the numerous forces in play, it is unlikely that a satisfactory agreement could be found in the short term for all the participants involved, because their interests are actually overlapping. Starting from the fundamental point of the foreign forces the solution which could reduce the number of clashes would be to send a new UN peacekeeping force. The coordinator for humanitarian affairs in Somalia, Eric Larouche, met the Somali Prime Minister a few days ago. During the meeting, Larouche asked for the support on the missions in progress and the future ones by UN in Somalia, before meeting President Yusuf (but the topic and the outcome of this meeting has not been revealed). Relationships between UN and TFG have worsened during these years of civil war, also due to the kidnappings and murders of the emissaries of the organization. The General Secretary has demonstrated some reservations over the deployment of a UN peacekeeping mission and is more in favor of sending a multinational force. This appears to be the answer to the pressures that the Security Council (CdS) had put on Ban Ki-Moon in August, asking him to start preparing the possible deployment of UN peacekeepers and replace the green helmets of the African Union (AU). The AU mandate received by UN will expire next February, but the unstable situation in Somalia has pushed the General Secretary to propose a multinational force. This happened also because some members of the CdS would have opposed the mission, required by TFG as well, putting peace as the conditio sine qua non. It stands that the sending of a UN mission will allow Ethiopia to withdraw its soldiers, recognized as the major invaders, from Somalia, contributing in this way to reduce the clashes. This could then influence the position of the US, which intervened as official supporter of Ethiopia. Once the entity of the clashes has been dampened, the desired dialogue between TFG and the opposition could eventually be renewed. The birth of ASL has showed the possibility of finding a dialogue between the representatives of the Islamic Courts and members of the civil society.

The problem of the extreme fringes of the Islamic Courts still remains, and is probably the thing which worries the US the most. From the seizure of Mogadishu by the Ethiopian troops to the start of the guerrilla war with the Islamic militia, there was an increase in violence and a worsening of the situation concerning the human rights, among which there was the traffic of human beings with Yemen. The USA probably fear the improvement of relationships with the Arabic country, in which Islamic integralism has a huge weight and it could concretely contribute to the cause of the Islamic partisans, some of which have declared a real Jihad war on the Christian occupants (particularly Ethiopians and Americans). Yusuf's choice concerning the Prime Minister could clarify the path undertaken by the government and have a great influence on the fragile balances among the parties.

Translation by Michela Mogavero

Contents produced by Equilibri cannot be reproduced in whole or in part. In the case of commercial use written permission must be issued by the copyright holder (Equilibri Srl). Published articles may not reflect the opinion of the owners of this site. Registered with the Tribunale di Firenze on the 19th January, 2004

Source: Tribunale di Firenze

Home | Contact us | Links | Archives | Search