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Future of Somalia?... After Somaliland’s recognition
By Abdulaziz Al-Mutairi
The future of Somaliland rests in hands of its people, and they voted for independence on 18th May 1991 followed by referendum in 2001. The Somalilanders ruled out future reunion with failed state of Somalia. However, the future of Somalia remains uncertain, shaky and undetermined.
Somalia is run by traditional rival country– Ethiopia, which suffered from Somali invasion twice in less than two decades. Somalia, under leadership of Dictator Mohammed Siyad implemented policy of bringing the Somali-speakers under one government. This ideology led him to go war with Ethiopia and dispute with Kenya.
In 17th and 18th Century, Muslims of Ethiopia and Somalia, led by Somalis and Arabs fought against Christian Ethiopian emperors to establish Islamic state called ‘ADAL’. Harar City was later named as capital city of ADAL
Founder of ADAL Ahmed Al-Ghazali, nicknamed Ahmed Guray, who was an Arab, led the Somalis and Muslims to win over the Ethiopian emperor, and captured more than eighty percent of current Ethiopian territories.
This angered the traditional Ethiopian orthodox leaders, who later labeled Somalis as their main enemy and seek help from Portugal against ADAL Forces. Later, the Portugal army defeated the Muslims and Ahmed Guray was killed in the war.
In 19th Century, Somali dictator Mohammed Siyad went war with Ethiopia in 1964 and 1977, and occupied many parts of Ethiopia. After Ethiopia failed to stop the Somalis, they asked military support from Russia and Cuba. The triangular alliance of Ethiopia, Cuba and Russia forced the Somali army to withdraw from Ethiopian territories completely.
As part of current U.S. War on terror, Ethiopia and the West keep their eyes on Somalis, particularly Islamic Court who declared Jihad against Ethiopia. According to U.S. some Islamic Court leaders are Al-Qaeda associates and carries out guerrilla fighting against Ethiopian forces in Mogadishu.
Reliable sources reported “there is Somalis working with Al-Qaeda inside Somalia and even are very close allies of Osama Bin Laden.”
Today, the long-term enemy of Ethiopia is under its own control, so the question is, will Ethiopia withdraw from Somalia, and let the Somalis elect their own leadership? The answer is NO. Ethiopia wants to keep leaders like Abdullah Ahmed, who is willing to protect his post at expense of everything in Somalia, and carry out Ethiopian interest in Somalia.
A recent analysis showed that Ethiopia won milestone of securing its interest in the region, and Prime Minister Melez Sanawi received honor from the Ethiopian Orthodox Church in his military campaign in Somalia, in order to end existence of the traditional foe of Ethiopia – the Somalis.
Their dreams come true! Ethiopia to rule Mogadishu! Even, local Somali press reported that the Ethiopian Military General in Mogadishu slapped twice on the face of the shaky President Abdullah Ahmed. Ethiopia gets moral and financial support of U.S. and Israel as part of ‘War on terror’ to eliminate the terror in the Horn of Africa region.
The fall of Somalia:
Why Somalia failed?! The answer is that Dictator Mohammed Siyad was the man responsible of this failure; he was ignorant, unethical and immoral. His ignorance let the future of Somalia and that of East African Muslims into unknown. Somalia, was the strongest East African Islamic state, which could have help other Muslims in the region to win their rights under Christian governments like Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.
We, know, Sudan is another Islamic country in the region, but internal problems and different culture and believes complicated the Sudan situation. Somalia is 100% Muslim, Sunni, Sha’afi and even all speak one language and share similar culture and color. That is the difference between Sudan and Somalia.
The Western Christian missionaries support the southern Sudanese against the government in Khartoum for only one reason ‘Southern Sudanese are Christians’. They teach them, how to hate the Muslims and Arabs. So, we can say Sudan needs emergency Islamic and Arab help before it collapse just like Somalia.
About the recent conflict in Kenya, it was tribal violence, and similar to that destroyed Somalia 17 years ago. But, I always ask my self, are the Kenyans smarter and intelligent than Somalis to solve their differences? Or there is hidden power solving their problems?
We know, Kenya is mainly Christian land, and it is not stubborn Christian nation like Zimbabwe. They accept the instructions of the west, and receive aid and support. They defined their identity according western description. All these characters attracted the western world.
Former U.N Secretary General and U.S. Secretary of State rushed to Nairobi, Kenya to solve the differences between the Kenyans. U.S President and UK Prime Minister called immediate end of the inter-fighting.
In other hand, UN or U.S. officials did not visit Mogadishu to help the Somalis during the beginning of the violence, and they did not even put pressure on Siyad Barre to leave the office peacefully. Instead the international community watched the collapse of Somalia, because they don’t have religious, political or economical interest in Somalia unlike the Christian Kenya.
As matter of fact, the collapse of Somalia will secure the Christian community in east African like Ethiopian and Kenya.
Recently, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zanawi, submitted draft bill to Ethiopian Parliament giving them to select between two options. Options say, withdraw the Ethiopian forces completely from Somalia, or allow the Ethiopian forces to take control over all regions of Somalia.
Meles, who is very clever in politics, is planning to pressure the parliament to support his plans to wipe out Somalia from the map. He, clearly, knows that the parliament won’t take the first option of withdrawing completely from Somalia.
He knows that the parliament is forced to accept the second option of occupying even peaceful regions of Somalia like Puntland. He tells the Ethiopians that danger will follow you to Addis Ababa if we leave Somalia.
Today, every Somali-speaker and Muslim can see the illegal Ethiopian activities in Somalia, supported Ethiopia’s henchman Abdullah Ahmed and other mercenaries.
I Swear to Allah, Meles, is planning to wipe Somalia out of the map, and merge both Ethiopia and Somalia under leadership of Addis Ababa. I can say, Somalia will fall for ever.
Somaliland will get independence from Somalia, because Somaliland democracy gives the final decision to the people. We know, Somalilanders voted for their independence in 1991. Personally, I believe Italian Somalia, who is under Ethiopian occupation, should recognize Somaliland, in order to save this Somali and Muslim country.
Today the problem of Somalia is like cancer, and one need to cut off the affected part before it spread to other parts.
Somaliland is the healthy Somali part, and people decided to go alone, as they feel save to be their own. Somaliland lost trust in Italian Somalia after bombing and destruction that reduced major Somaliland cities to dust and killed more than 100,000 innocent people by Somali National Army and Air Forces.
Somalilanders are Somali people, and are part of East African Islamic Community. If Somaliland survives from current disturbances and occupation in Somalia, than remember, you saved some Somali and Muslim people.
As analyzer, I recommend, the Southern Somalis to work on removing the Ethiopians out of their country regardless of the procedures they enforce.
In the future, one day, the Somalis will come together and unite and win against the Christian crusaders. The win belongs to Muslims and Somalis.
However, it is too dangerous to put other parts of Somalia into the danger and occupation that shadowed Mogadishu. We know, Somalis in Somaliland and Djibouti are the only free Somali-speaking areas today, as other three parts – NFD, Eastern Region of Ethiopia and Italian Somalia – are under foreign occupation. We hope the power, which will save Somalia come from these two free parts.
Forgive me, if I made mistake in my analysis.
By Abdulaziz Al-Mutairi